Time for Grady to make an adjustment?

[Prosecutor]

I don't think I've ever seen Grady Sizemore criticized. He keeps his mouth shut, gives 100% effort all the time, and produces at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths. Nothing not to like.

But he's really been a liability for the Tribe's offense in April. Batting average of .205. OBP of .276. Zero home runs. And all from the #2 position in the order.

His problem is that he can't hit left-handed pitchers. He's 3 for 32, for a BA of .094 and an OPS of .265. That's ridiculous.

He's fine against righties: .283 with an OPS of .803.

My issue is that he doesn't adjust to the pitchers or the count. He tries to pull everything and he tries to hit everything over the right field wall. He doesn't change his approach with two strikes on him. Here are his averages when he has two strikes on him:

0-2 .182 (2-11)
1-2 .071 (1-14)
2-2 .000 (0-14!)
3-2 .333 (2-6)

Overall that's 5 for 45, or .111 when he's got two strikes on him.

I haven't seen him cut down on his swing and try to make contact with two strikes, which is why he strikes out so much. He already has 20 K's in 78 at-bats.

Grady is a left-handed hitting center fielder with excellent speed who hits second in the order. What does that suggest? It suggests to me that on-base percentage should he his primary concern, not trying to hit 35 home runs. Now I'm not suggesting that he completely re-tool his swing in mid-career and try to become Ichiro. But I think that he needs to put more importance on making contact with two strikes instead of swinging for the fences. And I think he needs to try and go the other way once in a while, especially against lefties. Because whatever he's doing against lefties now isn't working. He's hitting .094 against them, which is ridiculous.

I think he should try and bunt his way on once in a while against left-handed pitching. I think he should shorten up, try make solid contact, and go with the pitch, especially on breaking stuff away.

[bigyellowbud]

Great post, and I would agree. I think everyone loves how Grady plays the game...each and every day. However, especially against lefties, he needs to make changes. Shorten up...take the ball to left...put down a couple of bunts.

I don't think it would be out of the question to move him down in the lineup vs. lefties....his present numbers warrant a change of some sort.

He is too good a player to have the SO ratio he does. Many on here get on Peralta and Hafner because they continue to do the same thing each and every AB and cut Sizemore some slack. Well, Grady, it's time to make some changes in your approach..like players of your caliber should.

[pup]

Organizational Philosophy


Strikeouts do not matter.

Swing as hard as possible, just in case.

1500 strikeouts is almost a Spring Training Goal.

Remember moving him down in the lineup to take advantage of his power to drive in more runs? Not exactly what you tell a cat you are hoping to cut down on his swing.

Maybe if we are lucky, Shapiro can get back to more platoons!

[Wahoot]

Talk me through your reasoning, Pup. How do Grady's number reflect the Indians organizational philosophy? From your posts in this and other threads, I take it that you think the Indians "new" OPS-driven philosophy is to a) dismiss strikeouts, b) swing for the fence every time up, and c) take a bunch of pitches to draw walks. Is that a fair assessment of your opinion?

If so, look at Grady's walk rate the past three years:

2008 -- 13.2%
2009 -- 11.9%
2010 -- 6.5%

Nothing there. He's actually walking less. How about his Isolated Power score (slugging percentage minus batting average):

2008 -- .233
2009 -- .197
2010 -- .108

So if he's swinging from the heels every time up, it's not like the ball is going anywhere when he connects. Finally, let's look at his strikeout rate:

2008 -- 20.5%
2009 -- 21.1%
2010 -- 26.5%

Well, MAYBE, there's something there, but if you consider that Grady's career strikeout rate is 22.3%, then it doesn't seem like there's been some seismic shift in the percentage of times Grady's strikes out (he actually struck out less than his career average in 2008 and 2009). In fact, if there's one obvious stat to reflect why Grady is having such a terrible year, it's how often he's swinging at pitches that would have been balls:

2008 -- 19.5%
2009 -- 17.9%
2010 -- 30.9%

That's ugly. And it doesn't really look like the tinkerings of a micro-managing front office. It looks more like a guy who's been robbed of his power by a string of injuries and who's not swinging at strikes.

But you see things differently?

[pup]

Here is what I see. And it is not limited to Grady.

I see a lot of Cleveland Indians hitters "trying" to work counts. I see it more often today than last year. More often last year than the year before.

I also see other teams taking advantage of this. And throwing more and more first pitch strikes to the Indians. And the Indians standing with a bat on their shoulder. And falling behind. So, in fact, walk rates are down because opponents are pitching from a power position.

Now, as you are behind in the count, when you do make contact it is only natural that you are making contact on more difficult pitches to hit, and not hitting them as well. Dip in isolated power. Harder to hit pitches on the corner at the knees because you are down 1-2 than to hit cock shots up 3-1.

You capture it yourself with your last stat. He is chasing more pitches out of the strike zone. Now, how often is he chasing bad pitches while ahead in the count?

Again, this happens to be in a Grady thread. It is not limited to Grady. 1, maybe 2 guys shorten their stroke (of guys that matter) with 2 strikes.

Also, showing incremental changes in Grady over a 3 year period is kind of pointless. It is not like he just started swinging from the heels last week. I think at times he was better about it but 80% of the time this is what this organization has taught him since he was a kid. And moving him down in the order to be able to drive in more runs most certainly did not give him the hint to cut down on his swing and misses.

[pup]

Since stats are the only way to communicate around here, I went and looked at a couple.

96 PA

He has put the first pitch in play 7 times - 1-7
34 times pitch 1 was ball 1
55 times pitch 1 was strike 1 (62 if you count the 7 times he hit it)

So, in 61 of his 96 PA, he either makes an out on the first pitch or falls behind in the count. (55 1st pitch strikes, 6 outs made swinging at first pitch)

35 times he either was ahead in the count or got a hit.

When Grady Sizemore is ahead in the count, he is hitting .389/.542/.722
When the count is even, he is hitting .200/.200/.229
When he is behind, he is hitting .118/.162/.176

Now, the fact that he hits worse when behind in the count is not surprising or noteworthy. The fact that he is behind in the count in 2 out of every 3 at bats is. In 2007 he was behind after the first pitch in 356 PA. He was ahead in 324. Almost 50/50.

Now, maybe he has been unlucky and pitchers are just pitching him really well early in the count. That is not what I see though. I see a guy (and team) more concerned with opponents pitch counts and taking a lot of very hittable pitches early in the count, in the name of being patient.

And that my friend is organizational philosophy.

[pup]

As a team:

Indians have been down 0-2 twice as often as they have been up 3-1.
Opposing pitchers throw strike one in 543 PA in 2010.
Opposing pitchers throw ball one in 370 PA in 2010.

So 60% of the time we see strike 1.

[leadpipe]

Way too many "I see's" in your posts Pup.

That's a foreign concept around here.

I "see" Andy Marte blows. I previously "watched" and could tell Russ Branyan wasn't going to help a team win. I "see" the flying Perez brothers unable to set up their plus pitches and, frankly, I "see" zero hope for the Tribe this season, because I've "watched" the Twins several times this year.

But until I can abacasully qualify these things, someone will work the numbers and tell me Marte's getting jobbed, Branyan can hit, perez is the closer of the future and "anything can happen in this division"

Now, concerning Sizemore, go ahead and run the numbers on him and draw your conclusions, Ole' Lead Man's just gonna watch him.


Pretty effective way to analyze things should you decide to give it a try some day. I recommend it.

[Prosecutor]

Now, concerning Sizemore, go ahead and run the numbers on him and draw your conclusions, Ole' Lead Man's just gonna watch him.

Actually, Ole' Lead Man, that's what Pup did. He watched the Tribe and noticed they seemed to take a lot of very hittable first pitch strikes. Then he tested his observation by looking up the statistics and found that was the case.

He also presented some stats to show that Sizemore in particular almost never gets a hit when he's behind in the count. If you throw out the 3-2 counts he's 3-for-39 with two strikes on him and down in the count. And that includes right-handed pitching.

Pup reported that over 30% of his swings are on pitches outside the strike zone. What that tells me is that he gets behind in the count and starts swinging at anything close. The pitchers know it and are taking advantage.

Grady needs to have more confidence in his batting eye and be willing to get called out on strikes once in a while, IMO. That, and cutting down on his swing to make contact with two strikes. Hitting left-handed with his speed he'll get some infield hits and bloop singles with two strikes if he can just put the ball in play more often.

So we'll all keep watching him and see if he keeps hacking and lunging at balls when he's down in the count. And we'll watch the whole team to see if they're routinely taking fast balls right down the middle for strike one. From watching Hafner play over the years, he seems to prefer taking the first pitch. I'm assuming he wants to get a look at the speed and movement on the ball before attempting to hit a pitch, and he's willing to concede a strike if necessary. It's a trade-off.

Hey, pup, where did you find thoes ball/strike stats?

[pup]

Now, concerning Sizemore, go ahead and run the numbers on him and draw your conclusions, Ole' Lead Man's just gonna watch him.

Actually, Ole' Lead Man, that's what Pup did. He watched the Tribe and noticed they seemed to take a lot of very hittable first pitch strikes. Then he tested his observation by looking up the statistics and found that was the case.

He also presented some stats to show that Sizemore in particular almost never gets a hit when he's behind in the count. If you throw out the 3-2 counts he's 3-for-39 with two strikes on him and down in the count. And that includes right-handed pitching.

Pup reported that over 30% of his swings are on pitches outside the strike zone. What that tells me is that he gets behind in the count and starts swinging at anything close. The pitchers know it and are taking advantage.

Grady needs to have more confidence in his batting eye and be willing to get called out on strikes once in a while, IMO. That, and cutting down on his swing to make contact with two strikes. Hitting left-handed with his speed he'll get some infield hits and bloop singles with two strikes if he can just put the ball in play more often.

So we'll all keep watching him and see if he keeps hacking and lunging at balls when he's down in the count. And we'll watch the whole team to see if they're routinely taking fast balls right down the middle for strike one. From watching Hafner play over the years, he seems to prefer taking the first pitch. I'm assuming he wants to get a look at the speed and movement on the ball before attempting to hit a pitch, and he's willing to concede a strike if necessary. It's a trade-off.

Hey, pup, where did you find thoes ball/strike stats?

1. Me and Lead are on the same page.
2. I only took to the stats angle because in this day and age it is the only way you can communicate on the game of baseball. If me and Lead were to have this discussion it would go like this:

Pup: The Indians sure do take a lot of hittable pitches early in the count.
Lead: I will watch the next couple of games and key on it.
Pup: Sounds good.

Week later....
Lead: Wow. They do take a lot of hittable early strikes. It seems to get them down in the count and forces them to chase bad pitches later.
Pup: Has a lot to do with why this offense struggles through long stretches over the last half a dozen years.
Lead: Makes sense.

I wish those types of conversations still existed around the game.

3. I made the stats up, just to fit in.
4. Actually, baseball reference gives all kinds of splits stats.

[The Tribe Zone]

Now, concerning Sizemore, go ahead and run the numbers on him and draw your conclusions, Ole' Lead Man's just gonna watch him.

Actually, Ole' Lead Man, that's what Pup did. He watched the Tribe and noticed they seemed to take a lot of very hittable first pitch strikes. Then he tested his observation by looking up the statistics and found that was the case.

He also presented some stats to show that Sizemore in particular almost never gets a hit when he's behind in the count. If you throw out the 3-2 counts he's 3-for-39 with two strikes on him and down in the count. And that includes right-handed pitching.

Pup reported that over 30% of his swings are on pitches outside the strike zone. What that tells me is that he gets behind in the count and starts swinging at anything close. The pitchers know it and are taking advantage.

Grady needs to have more confidence in his batting eye and be willing to get called out on strikes once in a while, IMO. That, and cutting down on his swing to make contact with two strikes. Hitting left-handed with his speed he'll get some infield hits and bloop singles with two strikes if he can just put the ball in play more often.

So we'll all keep watching him and see if he keeps hacking and lunging at balls when he's down in the count. And we'll watch the whole team to see if they're routinely taking fast balls right down the middle for strike one. From watching Hafner play over the years, he seems to prefer taking the first pitch. I'm assuming he wants to get a look at the speed and movement on the ball before attempting to hit a pitch, and he's willing to concede a strike if necessary. It's a trade-off.

Hey, pup, where did you find thoes ball/strike stats?

1. Me and Lead are on the same page.
2. I only took to the stats angle because in this day and age it is the only way you can communicate on the game of baseball. If me and Lead were to have this discussion it would go like this:

Pup: The Indians sure do take a lot of hittable pitches early in the count.
Lead: I will watch the next couple of games and key on it.
Pup: Sounds good.

Week later....
Lead: Wow. They do take a lot of hittable early strikes. It seems to get them down in the count and forces them to chase bad pitches later.
Pup: Has a lot to do with why this offense struggles through long stretches over the last half a dozen years.
Lead: Makes sense.

I wish those types of conversations still existed around the game.

3. I made the stats up, just to fit in.
4. Actually, baseball reference gives all kinds of splits stats.

That's why I love this forum, where the Old Schoolers, The Scouts, hang out.

It's hard to put down into type, what they know. The Art of Hitting means, I don't want the walk, when a better hit was there at that at-bat....

Hey, did ya ever notice Marte and Jhonny have the same batting stance/style...?

[pup]

Dude. You kill me.

Nobody is saying walks are bad. Taking pitches is bad. I know the stats world colors everything black and white, but that isn't real.

Of course working counts and taking walks are advantageous.

BUT

Putting yourself in bad situations to attempt to draw a walk is a problem.

You want to be a good hitter - take pitches that are going to be difficult to hit and hit the ones that are more hitter friendly. In the most simple terms, that is the game. Obviously, a majority of the time you are not going to be successful.

Pay attention to the games this week. Let me know how many times you think an Indians' hitter takes a very hittable pitch early in the count, only to swing at something worse later on in the same at bat. Then watch the opponents in the same way. If you do not think the Indians are clearly putting themselves in bad spots with their "batting eye", the discussion can continue. When I watch them, that is what I see.

[The Tribe Zone]

Dude. You kill me.

Nobody is saying walks are bad.

And I didn't either...

Putting yourself in bad situations to attempt to draw a walk is a problem

Bingo.

[The Tribe Zone]

I totally agree with your thinking...just stating it differently.

Let me know how many times you think an Indians' hitter takes a very hittable pitch early in the count,

It drives me crazy.....they foul off good pitches also, too many of them. Trying to do too much.

My philosophy, if it's close enough to be called a strike,, it's close enough to hit.....

Old School.

[pup]

I totally agree with your thinking...just stating it differently.

Let me know how many times you think an Indians' hitter takes a very hittable pitch early in the count,

It drives me crazy.....they foul off good pitches also, too many of them. Trying to do too much.

My philosophy, if it's close enough to be called a strike,, it's close enough to hit.....

Old School.

100% my fault. Thought you were going being sarcastic.

[Prosecutor]

Well, Old School is great, but I like the stats. That one where over 30% of Grady's swings are at pitches outside the strike zone is priceless. Can anyone be a productive hitter swinging at that many bad balls? The problem is that he's not crushing the fat pitches he swings at.

By the way, I said nobody ever criticizes Grady but here's a portion of Gary Benz's latest column on the home page. Looks like we were thinking along the same lines but I was one day ahead of him:

Branyan, Hafner and Peralta are mostly old stories at this point. Unfortunately another player that's becoming an old story is Grady Sizemore. Like Hafner, Sizemore's high water mark was 2006. Since then he's been on a steady and mystifying decline.

That might be fine if Sizemore were still earning league minimum. Instead he's making $5.7 million this year and is scheduled to make $7.6 million next season. In fact Sizemore's salary and productivity make a perfect "X" on the chart with the crossover point being that 2006 season.

There's no question that Wedge had trouble grooming Sizemore in the same way that Wedge had trouble developing most players. Yet at this point the problems with Sizemore seem to be beyond the grasp of nearly everybody. Except for the occasional spectacular play in center field, he looks nothing like the player that was poised to become the Indians' next superstar to be traded. Right now he looks like just another spare part among the many cobbled together in order to field a line up each day.

The last point I want to make is about pup's numbers showing what appears to be a consistent decline for Grady from 2008-2010. The decline from 2008 to 2009 was due to injuries. And 2010 is only a month old. So those stats are deceiving. By the end of 2010 he should be back to his career averages, unless something is terribly wrong. That bears watching.

[skatingtripods]

By comparison, Austin Kearns is 6-for-8 swinging at 1st pitches with a 2B, HR, and 10 RBI. Choo is 3-for-10. Asdrubal's 5-for-12.

Grady's problem is pretty obvious when you break everything down. His approach is completely and totally wrong at the plate. Cabrera's a .263 hitter when the pitcher is ahead. He's probably the willingest hitter to make adjustments and change his approach on the entire team. Even Choo is just .227 when the pitcher is ahead.

Nothing wrong with singles. Grady seems to have something against them. Everything has to be hit out of the park or hooked down the RF line.

Cabrera against a SP the 2nd time: .348
Sizemore: .150

It's a game of adjustments. Grady Sizemore doesn't know how to make them. I don't know if it's even an organizational flaw there. It's just an egotistical player unwilling to change.

[Eckersley]

Branyan, Hafner and Peralta are mostly old stories at this point. Unfortunately another player that's becoming an old story is Grady Sizemore. Like Hafner, Sizemore's high water mark was 2006. Since then he's been on a steady and mystifying decline.

Steady & mystifying decline since 2006.

2009 was an injury-marred disaster for Grady, but his numbers were in decline before 2009. Could Grady be 1 of the many former roid users in MLB? Very likely IMO.

[davemanddd]

haven't you heard - "chicks dig the long ball" and grady is all about the ladies!!!

[pup]

Well, Old School is great, but I like the stats. That one where over 30% of Grady's swings are at pitches outside the strike zone is priceless. Can anyone be a productive hitter swinging at that many bad balls? The problem is that he's not crushing the fat pitches he swings at.

And this is exactly my point. Watch the game. The problem is not the pitches he is swinging at. It is why he is swinging at them. You swing at bad pitches. Pitchers pitches. When you are behind in the count. And you fall behind in the count because you are not swinging at the good pitches early in the count. THIS is reason #1 why the stats cats don't quite get it. There are reasons behind the accumulation of stats. Those are the things that really matter.

The last point I want to make is about pup's numbers showing what appears to be a consistent decline for Grady from 2008-2010. The decline from 2008 to 2009 was due to injuries. And 2010 is only a month old. So those stats are deceiving. By the end of 2010 he should be back to his career averages, unless something is terribly wrong. That bears watching.

Wait. My numbers? Those are Wahoots'n numbers. So if we are so confident he is going to get back to career numbers, why does he need to make an adjustment? Stats don't lie and they always even out, right? Are you saying in the past Grady cut down his swing with 2 strikes and he needs to adjust back to that? Because I surely do not remember that being true. He is getting himself into bad hitter's counts. I have a reason I believe that is happening. Do you?

[Erie Warrior]

Grady is really a poor hitter now. Ship his ass out in July as well. He either won't, or worse yet, can't make any adjustments. And Pup's right, it ain't just Grady. Hafner and Peralta are also in the same boat. If they take a cockshot for strike one, then they better be willing to shorten up and move their top hand toward the ball with 2 strikes. And they don't. Ever. It can't be over stated the way baserunners affect a ball game. Changes everything from defensive alignment to pitch selection.

Nothing wrong with slapping a first pitch fastball the other way for a hit. Ever.

[WiscTribeFan]

Branyan, Hafner and Peralta are mostly old stories at this point. Unfortunately another player that's becoming an old story is Grady Sizemore. Like Hafner, Sizemore's high water mark was 2006. Since then he's been on a steady and mystifying decline.

Steady & mystifying decline since 2006.

2009 was an injury-marred disaster for Grady, but his numbers were in decline before 2009. Could Grady be 1 of the many former roid users in MLB? Very likely IMO.

The answer for why a player's numbers decline isn't always PEDs. It's intellectually lazy to assume so.

Maybe his numbers are in decline because teams have figured out that he almost always watches strike one, is trying to pull everything, never bunts and never, ever shortens up his swing.

Teams have adjusted and he's not adjusting back. All the roids in the world aren't going to cover up those flaws right now.

[motherscratcher]

Pup is right IMO (although I'm not sure why he seems so pissed off about it ). It is organizational philosophy. The stats showed that was beneficial to work counts, take walks, try to hit HRs even if it means more strikeouts, etc. The problem is that every team knows this now. I think the opposing pitchers probably ARE more willing to throw strikes early because of our OP.

The problem is just like he said, because of this philosophy and desire to work counts and draw walks we are hitting from behind and hitting worse pitches. It does nobody any good to watch the best pitch go by because you dodn't want to swing at the first pitch.

What did we hear all freakin' spring about our pitching staff? The importance of first pitch strikes. That was going to be the big change. We were really emphasizing first pitch strikes and getting ahead. But then it comes to our hitters and it's "work the count". What, does Shapiro and Acta think we are the only organization to figure this out?

If the first pitch is there, pound it. It's probably the best one you're going to see.

Grady's working the count and meanwhile he's watching to most hittable pitch go by a lot of the time. Just swing the bat, dude. I was at the game Saturday and it almost seemed as though Grady was already down in the count walking to the batter's box. Then he's behind and trying to hit pitches in the dirt 500 ft.

[pup]

If Shapiro did think of it, you better be damned sure he thinks he is the only one to figure it out. Being the smartest man in all rooms all the time and all.

[Prosecutor]

So if we are so confident he is going to get back to career numbers, why does he need to make an adjustment? Stats don't lie and they always even out, right? Are you saying in the past Grady cut down his swing with 2 strikes and he needs to adjust back to that? Because I surely do not remember that being true. He is getting himself into bad hitter's counts. I have a reason I believe that is happening. Do you?

I am optimistic, maybe even confident, that Grady will get back to his career numbers because he is 27 years old and, by all accounts, 100% recovered from last year's injuries. Bill James showed that most players peak at age 27, so I can't believe Grady will continue to suck like this unless something has permanently changed. PED's?

I have to admit Grady put up All-Star offensive numbers with the same approach he's using now. But for whatever reason, that approach is not working for him, at least not against lefties. When you're 3-for-32 it's stupid not to make an adjustment.

I think Grady really enjoyed hitting 33 HR's that one year and wants to keep doing it. I wonder if Acta is going to talk to him about changing his approach against lefties or just let him try to work his way out of it.

As for the reason Grady is quickly getting behind in the count, you're saying it's because the organization is encouraging players to take pitches and try to work the count. I think the fact that Grady spent years as a leadoff hitter might factor in as well.

My observation is that Grady is a fastball hitter and he should jump on the first fastball he sees. When he's down in the count and the pitchers throw him breaking balls off the plate is when he gets in trouble. That's when he needs to slap it the other way.

[Lippy McGrath]

Grady's problem is pretty obvious when you break everything down.

It is. He can't hit left-handed pitching.

He is actually pretty good at hitting right-handed pitching. He is beyond useless at hitting left-handed pitching. Very very simple.

[skatingtripods]

Grady's problem is pretty obvious when you break everything down.

It is. He can't hit left-handed pitching.

He is actually pretty good at hitting right-handed pitching. He is beyond useless at hitting left-handed pitching. Very very simple.

Clever. Great first post.

I'm sure you're going to tell me that his career .219 when the pitcher is ahead in the count and that his career .188 with two strikes is because he's always facing LHP, right? .225 career hitter in full counts.

Clearly all of these things are proof that Grady Sizemore's only problem is that he cannot hit LHP.

[Lippy McGrath]

I'm sure you're going to tell me that his career .219 when the pitcher is ahead in the count and that his career .188 with two strikes is because he's always facing LHP, right? .225 career hitter in full counts.

Clearly all of these things are proof that Grady Sizemore's only problem is that he cannot hit LHP.

Aren't all hitters worse in pitchers counts? Isn't that why they're called pitchers counts? I don't like to think that hard. Especially here, where it seems cut and dried.

2008: .224/.347/.388 vs. LHP
2008: .286/.386/.548 vs. RHP

2009: .216/.309/.403 vs. LHP
2009: .262/.353/.464 vs. RHP

2010: .083/.154/.083 vs. LHP
2010: .294/.351/.471 vs. RHP

His hitting against right-handers is right in line with his last couple of years. His hitting against left-handers followes the trend. When this was Curtis Granderson, I was told he was a platoon player. Now that it's Grady Sizemore, I tell you he is a platoon player.

And I'll tell you why, for the fellow scouts: his weight shift is terrible against left-handers. He is constantly fighting off his back foot. That's no way to generate any leverage. His swing is too much reaching and not enough driving. He pulls too many pitches against left-handers and he doesn't hit them solid.

He could hit left-handers in 2007. What changed? I say it's his balance and quickness. He can't get the head through the zone fast enough any more. I refuse to believe he is 100% in condition.

[Wahoot]

As a team:

Indians have been down 0-2 twice as often as they have been up 3-1.
Opposing pitchers throw strike one in 543 PA in 2010.
Opposing pitchers throw ball one in 370 PA in 2010.

So 60% of the time we see strike 1.

Thanks, Pup. Where are these from? I'm having a hard time finding team splits by count. I can find them by batter but not by team . . .

Also, let me say that it gives me an E-R-E-C-T-I-O-N seeing numbers in your posts. I'm not convinced that you and I "see" the game all that differently. It's just that you're fairly confident in your hunches, and I want to see evidence to back up mine. It takes all kinds.

Speaking of evidence, here's the percentage of times Grady sees a strike on the first pitch:

2004 -- 52.2%
2005 -- 55.9%
2006 -- 58.6%
2007 -- 56.7%
2008 -- 54.5%
2009 -- 53.9%
2010 -- 64.6%

So, yeah, that suggests that pitchers really are pitching him differently this year. I'd guess that other teams have looked at the numbers and said, "Hey, the way you get Grady Sizemore out is to get ahead of him in the count." And that's exactly what they're doing.

Couple that with Grady's sudden propensity to swing at pitches outside the zone, and you've got a recipe for disaster.

[skatingtripods]

Aren't all hitters worse in pitchers counts? Isn't that why they're called pitchers counts? I don't like to think that hard. Especially here, where it seems cut and dried.

Of course most of them are. But, to completely ignore the fact that Grady is a terrible two-strike hitter just because other hitters are is wrong. There's more wrong with Grady than just his inability to hit LHP. There are plenty of guys around the league who put the bat on the ball with two strikes.

2008: .224/.347/.388 vs. LHP
2008: .286/.386/.548 vs. RHP

2009: .216/.309/.403 vs. LHP
2009: .262/.353/.464 vs. RHP

2010: .083/.154/.083 vs. LHP
2010: .294/.351/.471 vs. RHP

His hitting against right-handers is right in line with his last couple of years. His hitting against left-handers followes the trend. When this was Curtis Granderson, I was told he was a platoon player. Now that it's Grady Sizemore, I tell you he is a platoon player.

I'm not disagreeing with this. What I was disagreeing with was the notion that everything that's wrong with Grady is his numbers against LHP, which is what you insinuated.

I totally agree that he's about as useful as a broken prophylactic against LHP. But, there's more to it than just that.

And I'll tell you why, for the fellow scouts: his weight shift is terrible against left-handers. He is constantly fighting off his back foot. That's no way to generate any leverage. His swing is too much reaching and not enough driving. He pulls too many pitches against left-handers and he doesn't hit them solid.

He could hit left-handers in 2007. What changed? I say it's his balance and quickness. He can't get the head through the zone fast enough any more. I refuse to believe he is 100% in condition.

This is a good analysis. It's pretty spot on and it preaches to several people's points about watching the games rather than just analyzing the statistics.


I wish I could simplify the splits more and see what Grady is hitting in two strike counts against just RHP.

[leadpipe]

Incidentally, yesterday's game is an example of numbers vs. actually seeing the game.

And I'm not anti-numbers - they just aren't the end all be all, and there is NO substitute for watching the game.

But the numbers tell you that Grady had a poor game. What they don't tell you is just how feeble many of his offerings were (and have been in recent AB's).

The numbers say he's struggling, watching tells us he's struggling AND lost. And there's a pretty big difference there.

[motherscratcher]

Incidentally, yesterday's game is an example of numbers vs. actually seeing the game.

And I'm not anti-numbers - they just aren't the end all be all, and there is NO substitute for watching the game.

But the numbers tell you that Grady had a poor game. What they don't tell you is just how feeble many of his offerings were (and have been in recent AB's).

The numbers say he's struggling, watching tells us he's struggling AND lost. And there's a pretty big difference there.

"overmatched" is the word that kept popping into my head on Saturday.

[pup]

As a team:

Indians have been down 0-2 twice as often as they have been up 3-1.
Opposing pitchers throw strike one in 543 PA in 2010.
Opposing pitchers throw ball one in 370 PA in 2010.

So 60% of the time we see strike 1.

Thanks, Pup. Where are these from? I'm having a hard time finding team splits by count. I can find them by batter but not by team . . .

Also, let me say that it gives me an E-R-E-C-T-I-O-N seeing numbers in your posts. I'm not convinced that you and I "see" the game all that differently. It's just that you're fairly confident in your hunches, and I want to see evidence to back up mine. It takes all kinds.

Speaking of evidence, here's the percentage of times Grady sees a strike on the first pitch:

2004 -- 52.2%
2005 -- 55.9%
2006 -- 58.6%
2007 -- 56.7%
2008 -- 54.5%
2009 -- 53.9%
2010 -- 64.6%

So, yeah, that suggests that pitchers really are pitching him differently this year. I'd guess that other teams have looked at the numbers and said, "Hey, the way you get Grady Sizemore out is to get ahead of him in the count." And that's exactly what they're doing.

Couple that with Grady's sudden propensity to swing at pitches outside the zone, and you've got a recipe for disaster.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=CLE&year=2010

[bigyellowbud]

You want to be a good hitter - take pitches that are going to be difficult to hit and hit the ones that are more hitter friendly. In the most simple terms, that is the game.

Presto!! Ding!! Ding!! We have a winner...IMO this is the best/simplest explanation on hitting at any level. Understand the pitchers have to throw it across the plate at some time in the AB. Don't swing at a pitch that is not one you can hit...LAY OFF IT!

This is the adjustment Tribe hitters have to make...don't swing at the pitches that you can't hit anyway...whether they are borderline strikes or off the plate. The pitcher will come in with a pitch in your hitting area...you have to be ready for it and square it up.

Man...I get tired of watching Tribe hitters just flail at pitches all over the place..like they have no plan as they go to the plate. I would love for them to be selective in looking for the pitch that they can handle. BTW...it maybe the 1st pitch...have to be ready to pop the clutch.

[The Tribe Zone]

I would love for them to be selective in looking for the pitch that they can handle. BTW...it maybe the 1st pitch...have to be ready to pop the clutch.

I agree....The best way to stop those 1st pitch strikes is to blister the ball so hard the fielders duck it instead of trying to catch it...

Line drive hitting. Everything comes off the line drive. It gives a hitter the most margin of error with his bat contact...

The philosophy should be, we as hitters own the plate. You pitch near it, we're going to drive it...A 'We Dare Ya' type of attitude.

The walks will come when pitchers realise this and move away from the plate more with their pitches...

We're talking aggressive hitting....not the selective-passive type we see now.

[Indyan]

I found this to be interesting, probably not of any great worth and can surely be scrutinized 100 different ways. But, I still think it's interesting.

From Pup's link, I looked up at bats for the 2010 team, 2009 team, 2007 team, and everybody's favorite powerhouse, the 1995 team to see what similarities and differences exist.

Code: Select all

2007          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch  573   10.2%   190   12.6%      .332   .342   .525.  .867
After 1-0   2185   39.0%   663   44.1%      .303   .419   .492   .910
After 0-1   2846   50.8%   651   43.3%      .229   .278   .359   .637

2009          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch  565   10.1%   207   14.1%      .366   .378   .595   .973
After 1-0   2206   39.6    618   42.1%      .280   .398   .467   .865
After 0-1   2797   50.2%   643   43.8%      .230   .280   .341   .621

2010          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch   76   9.2%     25   12.6%      .329   .333   .474   .807
After 1-0    315  38.2%     87   43.9%      .276   .398   .413   .811
After 0-1    434  52.6%     86   43.4%      .198   .265   .288   .553

1995          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch  617  12.8%    231   16.5%      .374   .375   .601   .976
After 1-0   2151  44.5%    659   47.2%      .306   .416   .518   .935
After 0-1   2061  42.7%    506   36.2%      .246   .287   .398   .684


Here we can see how each team fared when putting the first pitch in play, getting ahead 1-0, or falling behind 0-1. So far this year, the team is trending more towards letting the first pitch go by (or maybe hoping they get hit, who knows). Unfortunately on those first pitches, they are hitting 50 points better and slugging 60 points better than when they even have an advantage in the count. Oddly enough, it seems that all 4 teams saw this first pitch advantage, just that this year's team is capitalizing on it even less often. And yes, if they do get ahead in the count, their OBP reaches nearly .400 (woo!), but 52.6% of the time they are falling behind 0-1 where they are stench personified.

I'm not saying they should blindly swing at the first pitch, and I don't expect them to have the talent of years past. I just want to feel like they're not letting teams jump ahead 0-1 only to frantically try and "defend" the plate with wild swings thereafter.

[Wahoot]

I found this to be interesting, probably not of any great worth and can surely be scrutinized 100 different ways. But, I still think it's interesting.

From Pup's link, I looked up at bats for the 2010 team, 2009 team, 2007 team, and everybody's favorite powerhouse, the 1995 team to see what similarities and differences exist.

Code: Select all

2007          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch  573   10.2%   190   12.6%      .332   .342   .525.  .867
After 1-0   2185   39.0%   663   44.1%      .303   .419   .492   .910
After 0-1   2846   50.8%   651   43.3%      .229   .278   .359   .637

2009          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch  565   10.1%   207   14.1%      .366   .378   .595   .973
After 1-0   2206   39.6    618   42.1%      .280   .398   .467   .865
After 0-1   2797   50.2%   643   43.8%      .230   .280   .341   .621

2010          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch   76   9.2%     25   12.6%      .329   .333   .474   .807
After 1-0    315  38.2%     87   43.9%      .276   .398   .413   .811
After 0-1    434  52.6%     86   43.4%      .198   .265   .288   .553

1995          AB   AB %     H     H %        BA     OBP    SLG    OPS
First Pitch  617  12.8%    231   16.5%      .374   .375   .601   .976
After 1-0   2151  44.5%    659   47.2%      .306   .416   .518   .935
After 0-1   2061  42.7%    506   36.2%      .246   .287   .398   .684


Here we can see how each team fared when putting the first pitch in play, getting ahead 1-0, or falling behind 0-1. So far this year, the team is trending more towards letting the first pitch go by (or maybe hoping they get hit, who knows). Unfortunately on those first pitches, they are hitting 50 points better and slugging 60 points better than when they even have an advantage in the count. Oddly enough, it seems that all 4 teams saw this first pitch advantage, just that this year's team is capitalizing on it even less often. And yes, if they do get ahead in the count, their OBP reaches nearly .400 (woo!), but 52.6% of the time they are falling behind 0-1 where they are stench personified.

I'm not saying they should blindly swing at the first pitch, and I don't expect them to have the talent of years past. I just want to feel like they're not letting teams jump ahead 0-1 only to frantically try and "defend" the plate with wild swings thereafter.

Great post, Indyan. The only change I would make is to use plate appearances instead of at bats (because otherwise you ignore at bats that ended up in walks). Doing that, I just crunched these numbers a bit and here's something interesting -- the percentage of times Indians batters have swung at the first pitch by year followed in parentheses by runs scored:

Current
2010 -- 8.6% (557 projected)

Recent Past
2009 -- 9.7% (773)
2008 -- 10.5% (805)
2007 -- 9.8% (811)
2006 -- 11.0% (870)

The Golden Years
2000 -- 11.0% (950)
1999 -- 10.1% (1009)
1996 -- 11.0% (952)
1995 -- 11.8% (840)

I'm not sure what exactly we can take from this, except that this year's team is one of our least aggressive ever.

What's frustrating about Sizemore in particular is that not only does he usually let the first pitch go by (first pitch swing percentage of only 7%), but he's also posting an OPS on only .286 when he DOES swing at the first pitch. So this may not cure his woes. Plus, even when Grady takes that first pitch as a ball and gets himself ahead in the count 1-0, his OPS climbs all the way up to . . . .689.

:(

[leadpipe]

....and then we need to figure out how many guys on the team in '95 preferred to be first pitch hitters in their careers....and then how many pitchers in the division liked to jump ahead 0-1, even if it meant some risk..... and then....

This is all good if you like numbers and wanna fool with em', but a guy watchin the game with one hand on his coconuts and a beer in the other that says something along the lines of "Damn, that Grady ain't a playin' well" is as accurate as any numbers could be in this case.

Personally, I think they are taking more pitches for a few reasons, the first, organizational philosophy, as Pup mentions, and I tend to agree with, but I can't prove it, and the second, is they have too many hitters either in over their heads at this point, or lost, and are getting locked up in counts they shouldn't be getting locked up in.(Including 0-0) LaPorta, Valbuena, Marson, Sizemore and Hafner....it's hard to tell what the count is. The young players, well, you'd expect this, but you've got the big line-up problems in the afforementioned Sizemore and the example of what coming off steroids can do to your career in Hafner. Big line-up problems.

So, are the guys too passive, or just not that talented? Eyes will answer this question faster than numbers.

[Prosecutor]

Castrovince on Grady:

I was just wondering what you think is going on with Grady Sizemore. Our "star player" is batting .207, and it's starting to worry me. Do you think this is just a slow start, or is he turning into Travis Hafner Jr.?
-- Anthony B., Ashland, Ohio

We all know that Sizemore has a long swing. That swing helped him hit 107 home runs from 2005-08, but it also helped his batting average drop from a career-best .290 in '06 to .268 in '08 and .248 last year.

Sizemore used to generate a lot of topspin when he made contact, but he was strong enough and his hands were fast enough that he could get away with it and still drive the ball. Trouble is, such a swing can put a great deal of stress on the elbow upon contact, and all that stress caught up to Sizemore last year, prompting arthroscopic surgery.

What you're seeing this year could be a byproduct of Sizemore attempting to shorten his swing and get more backspin on the ball. It's proving to be a difficult adjustment for Sizemore to make, but it would certainly help his career, long-term. His old approach causes more strikeouts and more stress on the elbow, and his power numbers would have diminished with age. A shortened swing could allow him to raise that batting average over time and become a more consistent hitter.

But like I said, it's been an uphill battle for Sizemore in the early going. He's shown some encouraging signs of late, such as when he put backspin on a ball to left-center field for a base hit Saturday night, yet his overall numbers leave quite a bit to be desired.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So if Castrovince is to be believed, Grady is already making an adjustment, which is why he's struggling so much. He did get two hits tonight off a lefty, so maybe things will start turning around soon. Interesting that Castrovince says his swing caused his elbow problems and now he's trying to change his swing. It sure doesn't look like his swing is any shorter to me.

By the way, it's time for the Indians to make an adjustment and send Raffie Perez back to the minors. Opponents are hitting .469 off him and he's giving up almost a walk per inning. Tonight he pitched to two lefties and they both hit vicious line drives. This guy Hermann is pitching lights out in the Columbus bullpen; let's give him a shot while giving Raffie a chance to work on his problems in the minors.

[dazindiansfanuk]

By the way, it's time for the Indians to make an adjustment and send Raffie Perez back to the minors. Opponents are hitting .469 off him and he's giving up almost a walk per inning. Tonight he pitched to two lefties and they both hit vicious line drives. This guy Hermann is pitching lights out in the Columbus bullpen; let's give him a shot while giving Raffie a chance to work on his problems in the minors.

As discussed in the game thread, the Indians can't send Perez to the minors without DFAing him off the 40-man roster and exposing him to waivers.

Even with the way he is pitching now, he'd probably get claimed with some time banking on being able to fix him.

[Prosecutor]

Sorry, didn't know that. I see vets like Joe Smith and Fausto Carmona getting sent to the minors (and Raffie last year), so I assume it can be done with anybody. My bad.

Last night Acta gave Raffie every break. He brought him in to start an inning, so there was no one on base. The Tribe was behind so there was no lead to protect. And the first two batters were left-handed. Acta gave Raffie every chance to succeed- no pressure and lefties to pitch two. The first batter almost took Raffie's foot off with a line drive and the second ripped a double into the gap. What is Acta going to do with him if he can't pitch up here?

Is something permanently wrong with him?

[WiscTribeFan]

Sorry, didn't know that. I see vets like Joe Smith and Fausto Carmona getting sent to the minors (and Raffie last year), so I assume it can be done with anybody. My bad.

Last night Acta gave Raffie every break. He brought him in to start an inning, so there was no one on base. The Tribe was behind so there was no lead to protect. And the first two batters were left-handed. Acta gave Raffie every chance to succeed- no pressure and lefties to pitch two. The first batter almost took Raffie's foot off with a line drive and the second ripped a double into the gap. What is Acta going to do with him if he can't pitch up here?

Is something permanently wrong with him?

Other than he had one brilliant year, had the book written on him, and he never adjusted back? He's been declining since 2007's stellar year with no evidence that he's ever getting that mojo back. I'm pretty much ready to wash my hands of him. Any resurgence he'll have will be with someone else.

You mentioned Hermann. He's paid his dues, clearly, but I'm just thinking he's another journeyman type guy with a somewhat pedestrian K/BB ratio, much like the rest of the Tribe arms right now. It's why I actually like Ambriz. The guy strikes people out. Strikeouts are fascist, I know, but if I look at our stats one more time and see a 1:1 K/BB ratio, or worse, >1:1, I'll scream. It's unacceptable to have that many guys with those types of ratios, especially the starters. Hell, I'd say give Yohan Pino a shot at the pen. He's pitching solidly for Columbus and has a much better K/IP and K/BB ratio. He's 27, maybe give him a shot in the pen, see what he can do. Can't be much worse than Perez.

With Wood possibly coming back from rehab soon, Carrasco potentially on the way, there are several roster moves that need to be made.

My feelings are that Huff's sent down and Perez DFA'd. At this point, maybe he should get a fresh start somewhere else because he's not getting it done here, nor has he for the last two seasons. Maybe someone in the Central will get him and he'll help kick-start our offense.

Masterson may have saved his rotation spot with his last game. I think that they are evaluating him in the first half to see if he can figure out lefties. If not, he goes to the pen.

[dazindiansfanuk]

Saul Rivera has an out in his contract that he can ask for his release if not on the ML roster by, I think, May 15th.

We might see both Wood and Rivera within the next two weeks, probably with Wright and Perez being DFA'd.

If they're intent on still trying to fix Perez then Sipp, Lewis and Laffey all have options remaining I believe.

[WiscTribeFan]

Saul Rivera has an out in his contract that he can ask for his release if not on the ML roster by, I think, May 15th.

We might see both Wood and Rivera within the next two weeks, probably with Wright and Perez being DFA'd.

If they're intent on still trying to fix Perez then Sipp, Lewis and Laffey all have options remaining I believe.

Rivera's kinda of a 'meh' guy for me. 5K/7BB in 12 IP. His numbers are nearly identical to Hermann's, except that he has K'd more than walked.

I'd bring up Pino and/or Scott Lewis first. At least they're averaging a K/IP with better K/BB ratios. We've got enough groundball pitching mopes who walk more people than they K.

[dazindiansfanuk]

No doubt Rivera is 'meh'.... but, it wouldn't surprise me if that was one of the first moves they made considering his contract status.

Oh, and Scott Lewis is hurt again.

[Wahoot]

This is all good if you like numbers and wanna fool with em', but a guy watchin the game with one hand on his coconuts and a beer in the other that says something along the lines of "Damn, that Grady ain't a playin' well" is as accurate as any numbers could be in this case.

It may be just as accurate. But I want to know WHY Grady is having these problems. And in lieu of not handling my testicles, I can look at the numbers, right?

Personally, I think they are taking more pitches for a few reasons, the first, organizational philosophy, as Pup mentions, and I tend to agree with, but I can't prove it...

Okay, about this organization philosophy thing . . . where are you guys getting this from? Let's forget for a moment whether (or not) building your team around high OPS hitters is a good thing. We can hash that out later. But, specifically, what has made you guys think that Shapiro is actively trying to get players to take more pitches, swing from the heels, not care about strike outs, etc.?

Maybe this is exactly what he's doing, but I don't see a ton of evidence for it in either his interviews or the stats since he took over.

[pup]

This is all good if you like numbers and wanna fool with em', but a guy watchin the game with one hand on his coconuts and a beer in the other that says something along the lines of "Damn, that Grady ain't a playin' well" is as accurate as any numbers could be in this case.

It may be just as accurate. But I want to know WHY Grady is having these problems. And in lieu of not handling my testicles, I can look at the numbers, right?

Personally, I think they are taking more pitches for a few reasons, the first, organizational philosophy, as Pup mentions, and I tend to agree with, but I can't prove it...

Okay, about this organization philosophy thing . . . where are you guys getting this from? Let's forget for a moment whether (or not) building your team around high OPS hitters is a good thing. We can hash that out later. But, specifically, what has made you guys think that Shapiro is actively trying to get players to take more pitches, swing from the heels, not care about strike outs, etc.?

Maybe this is exactly what he's doing, but I don't see a ton of evidence for it in either his interviews or the stats since he took over.

Again. I watch them play the game of baseball. I see them all take what I consider to be an very high number of early count fastballs in good hitting locations. Then I see them continue to swing as though they are up 3-1 in the count even when they are down 1-2.

There have been plenty of quotes that say strikeouts do not matter. Shit, the manager who only got the job because he was willing to worship at the feet of the smartest man live, came right out and said at least they aren't double plays.

And one more time. I am not saying OPS is not a good way to build a team. Simply that you better be damn sure aware of what transpires while someone is collecting the stats to make them a high OPS guy. Branyan is the perfect (though hardly the only in Lord Shapiro's time) example. You take a 5 year sample set, where a majority of his AB's in that time are hand selected for him as a role player and think those OPS numbers will transfer to him getting 600 plate appearances as a full timer. Not going to happen. Or else any of the other 10 organizations that watched him play on a regular basis would not have allowed him to wonder away for nothing.

Shit, the signing of Branyan is example 1A of what makes people like me say the things I am saying. If he doesn't prove the case that Shapiro is saying take pitches and swing from the heels no matter the count, I am not sure what would.

[GtX11]

Maybe Brantley should be brought up and send Grady down to Columbus. It might wake hime up. It seemed to have helped Astrubal.

[WiscTribeFan]

Maybe Brantley should be brought up and send Grady down to Columbus. It might wake hime up. It seemed to have helped Astrubal.

Brantley was hitting worse than Sizemore. How does this help the team?

Until Grady decides to make the adjustments, this discussion is purely academic.

He's on the cusp of either being great or merely being a decent player. It's up to him and the coaching staff to help try to get him over that hump. If he continues to flail against lefties, he'll become a platoon player, a la Granderson.

[TouchEmAllTime]

How about we make a permanent adjustment and trade him while other teams think he still might have some value?